Foxtail Research

Market research Indiana Mid West
Constituencies in India that have been most predictable and non-predictable

In my previous post, I generated a plot which binned constituencies based on number of parties that won in that constituency. We got a plot that showed majority of the constituencies having elected 3-8 parties. A few of them fell in the extremes in the plot having elected less than 3 or more than 8 parties over all the election years. In this post, I have listed those constituencies which fall in the extremes. A point to note is that those constituencies which had one party elected were newly formed or created in 2008. So they cannot be truly said that they have one elected party. They have not stood the test of time.

List of constituencies which have one elected party:

StateConstituencyWinning Party
BIHARPATNA SAHIB1BJP
GUJARATAHMEDABAD EAST2BJP
GUJARATAHMEDABAD WEST3BJP
GUJARATNAVSARIBJP
KARNATAKABANGALORE CENTRALBJP
KARNATAKAHAVERI4BJP
KARNATAKADHARWAD5BJP
KERALAPATHANAMTHITTAINC
KERALAWAYANADINC
MAHARASHTRADINDORIBJP
MAHARASHTRAKALYANSHS
MAHARASHTRAMAVALSHS
UTTAR PRADESHGHAZIABADBJP
WEST BENGALKOLKATA DAKSHINAITC
WEST BENGALKOLKATA UTTARAITC
MADHYA PRADESHCHHINDWARAINC
MAHARASHTRARAVERBJP
GUJARATBHARUCHBJP

1-Formed in 2008. BJP won in 2009, 2014, 2019. Until 2004 it was one constituency as Patna. After 2008, it got split into two – Pataliputra and Patna Sahib. As Patna constituency from 1951 to 2004, there were 6 parties who won in that constituency

2-Formed in 2008. BJP won in 2009, 2014, 2019. Until 2004, it was under one constituency Ahmedabad. BJP won in Ahmedabad constituency from 1989 to 2004

3-Formed in 2008. BJP won in 2009, 2014, 2019. Until 2004, it was under one constituency Ahmedabad. BJP won in Ahmedabad constituency from 1989 to 2004

4-Formed in 2008. Before it was part of Dharwad South, Dharwad North and Bagalkot constituencies.

5-Formed in 2008. Until 2004 elections, it was as two constituencies – Dharwad North and Dharwad South

List of constituencies with 9 or more elected parties:

StateConstituencyRecent winning partyParty with number of wins
UTTAR PRADESHBARA BANKIBJPIND – 2, INC – 4, SOC – 1, SSP – 1, BLD – 1, JD – 1, JNP(S) – 1, BSP – 1, SP – 2, BJP – 3
UTTAR PRADESHMIRZAPURADALINC-5, BJS-1, BLD-1, INC(I)-1, JD-1, BJP-2, SP-3, BSP-1, AD-1, ADAL-1
UTTAR PRADESHKAIRANABJPIND-1, SSP-1, INC-2, BLD-1, JNP(S)-1, JD-2, SP-1, BJP-3, RLD-1, BSP-1
UTTAR PRADESHBALLIABJPINC-6, IND-1, SP-2, BLD-1, JNP-1, JD-1, JP-1, SAP-1, SJP(R)-3, BJP-2
UTTAR PRADESHAMROHABSPINC-3, CPI-2, BLD-1, JNP(S)-1, JD-1, BJP-3, SP-1, BSP-2, IND-1, RLD-1
HARYANAHISSARBJPINC-7, SOC-1, BJD-1, JNP(S)-1, JD-1, HVP-1, HLD®-1, INLD-2, HJCBL-1, BJP-1
BIHARAURANGABADBJPINC-4, NCP-1, BLD-1, JNP-1, IND-1, JD-1, SHS-3, SAP-1, JD(U)-1, BJP-2
BIHARARRAHBJPBLD-1, JNP(S)-1, INC-1, IPF-1, JD-2, SAP-1, RJD-2, JD(U)-1, BJP-2
JHARKHANDCHATRABJPCNSPJP-1, SWA-1, IND-2, INC-3, BLD-1, JD-2, BJP-4, RJD-2
TAMIL NADUMADURAICPIMINC-9, CPI-1, CPM-3, TMC(M)-1, JP-1, DMK-1, ADMK-1, CPIM-1
TAMIL NADUTIRUCHIRAPPALLIINCIND-1, INC-5, CPI-3, CPM-1, DMK-1, TMC(M)-1, BJP-2, MDMK-1, ADMK-2
UTTAR PRADESHALIGARHBJPINC-6, REP-1, IND-1, BKD-1, BLD-1, JNP(S)-1, JD-1, BJP-6, BSP-1
UTTAR PRADESHETAWAHBJPIND-1, INC-4, SSP-1, BLD-1, JNP(S)-1, JD-1, BSP-1, SP-4, BJP-3
UTTAR PRADESHGHOSIBSPINC-4, CPI-3, BLD-1, JNP-1, IND-1, SAP-1, BSP-3, SP-1, BJP-1

It will be intriguing to delve deeper into these constituencies to understand the factors that may have major influence in selecting a party.

This blog has been moved from: bloggerhttps://coolovalanalysis.wordpress.com/2023/05/11/constituencies-that-fall-at-extremes-in-the-plot/

Image courtesy: istock

http://istockphoto.com

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I’m Ramaa

Welcome to Foxtail Research, my cozy corner of the internet dedicated to all things research – market, data and insights. I invite you to join me on a journey of understanding markets, their behaviors, my models, and theories with a touch of mathematics and some computer programming. Let’s get geeky!

Let’s connect