Shifting demographics trends are a major factor for Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). With education and in particular higher education expanding globally, it is worthwhile to understand demand for HEIs across all the countries in the world. In this blog, I analyze the demand (population) and supply (number of HEIs) across countries. Further, I classify countries into 3 groups to understand how different countries are positioned in meeting the demand based on changing demographics.
K-12 education is perceived as a basic necessity for everyone, and every country provides access to it through public school systems or other subsidized modes of delivery. But the same cannot be said for Higher Education, i.e. the education after K-12. Having a 4-year college degree or a 2-year diploma post K-12 education is still a privilege, luxury, and/or financial hardship for many. People invest their time and money to earn college degrees in the hope that the degree will open up new possibilities and opportunities in entering the workforce. The governments as well as private players also invest in building HEIs. The Governments and private players build HEIs to groom their people for the country’s growth and to advance research and technologies.
Demand for higher education is dependent on demographics, the value that people place on a college degree, the income level of parents, employment opportunities, and many other factors. Among these, the demographics of the country are a fundamentally important factor in assessing demand for higher education in that country. Furthermore, demographics are also an indicator of demand for higher education. More HEIs are required for countries with high populations. A growing younger population is an encouraging indicator for improving the infrastructure of HEIs.
Data Collection
Data pertaining to population and count of HEIs was collected for 213 countries.
1) World demographics by each country was collected from datasets in “Our World in Data”, a project of the Global Change Data Lab, a non-profit organization based in the United Kingdom. The datasets had the distribution of percentage of population across 3 age groups (0-14, 15-64, 65+) for each country. This information on distribution of population was used to calculate populations for each age group.
2) The number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in each country was collected from two sources: AUBSP “List of All Universities in the World 2025” and WHED “World Higher Education Database”. AUBSP stands for “All Updates and Books for Students and Professionals”. Any institution that offers a 2-year, 3-year, or 4-year degree after K-12 education is classified as a Higher Education Institution (HEI). It includes public universities, private universities, and colleges. When data was available in both sources, data from the WHED source was given priority for consideration. When data from both sources needed clarification, an internet search was done to collect data for those countries.
Data Analysis Methodology
(1) 0-14 population, 15-64 population and HEIs count for each country was used to calculate the Average HEI Strength (AHS) for each country for each age-group. AHS is the ratio of population over the number of HEIs. Lower AHS indicates (i) lower number of population per HEI in that country (ii) the country has more HEIs for the population. The assumption here is that every individual is considered to belong (either from past, present or future) to a HEI.
(2) Once AHS was estimated for each country for each age group, the countries were ranked based on AHS. The country with the lowest AHS was ranked 1 and the one with the highest AHS was ranked the last. The rankings were generated for both 0-14 and 15-65 populations. Rankings for 0-14 age group was for inferring future demand and 15-65 age group was for understanding for current and past demand. The two rankings were compared for each country to assess how the country is set for meeting future demand based on current infrastructure. Further explanation on methodology, analysis and inferences is provided in the analysis section.
Data Analysis
I) Based on demographics
Based on Absolute numbers
Based on absolute numbers, the top 10 countries with the highest population in 0-14 group are:
India with around 355 million people followed by China, Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, United States, Ethiopia, Congo Dem Rep, Bangladesh and Brazil.
Even though it is not related to Higher Education, it is impossible to go without noticing from the table the high percentage and absolute number of 65+ population in China and the United States. China has 200+ million people and the United States has about 63M next only to India which has 98M.
Based on percentage of population
Based on population percentages by age group, the top 10 countries with the highest percentage of 0-14 population are:
It is striking to note that (1) these countries are in Africa (ii) almost half of the population in these countries are children/young people less than 14 years old. The next 10 countries with high percentages (more than 40%) of 0-14 young children are also in Africa.
(II) Based on number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)
The top 10 countries with the highest number of HEIs are:
The United States has the highest number of HEIs, followed by Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Japan, and France. This list is immediately followed by countries such as Germany, Iran, Canada, Poland, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom.
(III) Analyzing Demographics and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) together
Combining the data on demographics with HEIs provides interesting perspective on demand and supply for HEIs. It provides an outlook on the future of Higher Education across the globe. Before going through the tables of data, here again is a brief description of the methodology used for analysis and inferences.
Average HEI Strength (AHS) for each country is calculated for each age group (0-14, 15-65). AHS is the ratio of population over the number of HEIs. If AHS is lower, it conveys each insittution has lower strength of population in that country. On the other side if AHS is higher, it conveys each insittution has higher strength of population. The best ranking, i.e. number 1 is given for the country which has the lowest AHS. The reasoning is that the lesser the AHS, i.e.lesser the population per insittution, the country can accomodate more population in the institutions with the existing infrastructure and without compromising on quality of education. It tells the country is not in the situation to establish more number of institutions for it’s population. The last ranking is given for the country which has the highest AHS. The rankings were generated for both 0-14 and 15-65 population.
Looking at the rankings for 0-14 and 15-65 age groups together leads to interpretations that tells about the future of Higher Education in that country. Ranking for 0-14 age group is for inferring future demand and ranking for 15-65 age group is for understanding current and past demand.
(*) For e.g. if a country has a rank of 15 in 15-65 age group and a rank of 5 in 0-14 age group, it indicates that AHS is higher for 15-65 group and lower for 0-14 group. This could mean that the strength is higher at present and will get lower in the future based on the existing HEIs and demographics in the country. It further tells the 0-14 population is lesser in the country compared to 15-65 group and there will be not be a necessity to establish more HEIs in the country.
(*) Considering another example with the reverse scenario – a country has a rank of 15 in 0-14 age group and a rank of 5 in 15-65 age group. This indicates that AHS is lower in 15-65 group and will get higher in 0-14 group. This could mean that the strength is lower at present and will get higher in the future based on the existing HEIs and demographics in the country. It further tells the 0-14 population is increasing in the country and there may be a necessity to establish more HEIs in the country.
Extending the interpretation, a country with a wide difference in the rankings for the two age groups indicates either growing or shrinking demand for Higher Education Institutions based on demographics. For this blog, a difference of 10 in ranking between the two age groups is taken as a guideline to categorize countries into 3 groups – countries with growing demand for HEIs, countries with shrinking demand for HEIs and countries with no apparent change in demand for HEIs. The below table summarizes the three categories:
Below is the table with the complete list of all countries with AHS scores and rankings. Countries in Category 3 (growing demand) are highlighted in orange. Countries in Category 2 (shrinking demand) are highlighted in green. The rest of the countries are in Category 1 and are not highlighted in the table.
Based on the analysis:
There are 41 countries in Category 3 (growing demand) with a potential need to establish more HEIs to meet future demand. They are:
There are 57 countries in Category 2 (shrinking demand) with enough HEIs to meet future demand. They are listed below:
Conclusion
A 2-year, 3-year, or 4-year college degree from Higher Education Institutions after K-12 education is widely accepted as a path that opens up many possibilities and opportunities. The knowledge, skills, and education from a college degree are becoming essential to keep up with the expectations of the current employment scenario. However, this comes with an investment of both time and money. Governments and private entities across countries are investing in building the ecosystem of HEIs to meet these labor demands and demographic trends. While doing so, some countries have established more HEIs, some have established fewer HEIs, and some have the right level of HEIs to meet the demand and trends. The dynamic shift in demographics of the 0-14 age group population has put countries in varying situations for building HEIs. In this blog, a methodology was developed using demographics and HEIs to rank and classify about 213 countries, resulting in these countries falling into 3 categories. The three categories are (1) countries meeting demand for HEIs, (2) countries with growing demand for HEIs, and (3) countries with shrinking demand for HEIs. This categorization will help to come up with decisions and policies for both students and educationists to plan for their investments in Higher Education. For students (and parents), it will help them to make decisions on the countries they can choose to invest for pursuing higher education. For educationists, it will aid them to assess the HEI infrastructure across countries and to recruit students from across countries.
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