Pandemic struck in 2020. Businesses adapted to remote working in a short notice. Work from home became a necessity for business continuity and the workforce quickly adapted to the new normal way of working. However, the sector that rose to the occasion and made Work-From-Home even possible for many people was the Education sector. The teachers and professors were not exposed to remote teaching. They astonishingly adapted to remote teaching and provided uninterrupted lesson plans. This period also experienced an increase in delivery of online education and courses and the demand and interest are on the rise. In this blog, we look through the data to understand the growth in online education, the future that it holds and its impact on the future workforce..
Work from home was made possible as the infrastructure for remote working was already in place. Video conferencing, Instant Messaging, Cloud tools and software programs, Online monitoring tools for project management, task management, performance management were matured and stable applications. Even if the pandemic had not struck, sectors such as Information Technology, Finance, Professional and Business services would have eventually adapted to full remote-working arrangement. Why? There was already a need for remote-working and tools/infrastructure were developed to meet those needs. Multinational companies had people working in geographically dispersed locations. Teams were dispersed all across continents. When people in a team or organization were working across different time zones, it became necessary for people to attend meetings and calls at non-office working hours. Further it was not possible to track the progress of team members without an online monitoring tool. Such scenarios generated the need for developing infrastructure for remote working and management. Hence when the pandemic struck, work-from-home worked efficiently in IT, Technology, and services sectors. The debate of whether to continue remote working or not continues even after the pandemic ended.
On the other hand, it was not conducive for sectors such as Customer services, Transportation, Warehousing, Logistics or jobs that required working in the laboratories or factory floors to continue with remote work. Still these sectors are exploring hybrid work options which allows for remote working for one or more days in a week. The education sector was in-between physical set-up and remote set-up. The online classes and courses which were widely adopted during the pandemic continues and analysis of data will help to understand the demand and more importantly it will help to hypothesize how the education sector would shape the future workforce.
About Online Education
EdX and Coursera started offering Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) in 2012. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that over 25% of US College and university students took at least one distance learning course from MOOC platform in 2012. This later increased to 36% in 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 accelerated the availability of online learning in higher education institutions too. NCES reports that 75% of all postsecondary students in the U.S.—over 14 million learners—took online classes in fall 2020 as the pandemic restricted in-person learning. With many schools opening classrooms for in-person learning again in 2021, the percentage of students enrolled in distance learning courses dropped to about 60% but it is still higher than the pre-pandemic period.
Meanwhile, enrollment for online courses did not drop in MOOC platforms such as Coursera even after schools opened classrooms for in-person learning in 2021. According to a report from the World Economic Forum, Coursera had 21 million registered users in 2016, 44 million in 2019, 71 million in 2020 and 92 million in 2022. All these statistics say that the momentum gained for online learning during the pandemic is still holding on and is to be seen how the learning will shape between in-person and online learning in the coming years.
Analysis of online enrollment data
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) provides the number and percentage of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by distance education participation, location of student, level of enrollment, and control. I collected and analyzed data from 2012 to 2022. The data is available up to 2022 and this was the year just after the end of the pandemic. I analyzed student enrollment in 2-year, 4-year, undergraduate and postbaccalaureate programs.
Level of Enrollment: 2-year
| Year | Percentage distribution of students by instruction delivery mode | |||
| In-Class | Online Classes (both hybrid and full) | Hybrid (At least one online class) | Fully Online classes | |
| Fall 2012 | 73.5 | 26.5 | 16.8 | 9.7 |
| Fall 2013 | 72.7 | 27.3 | 17.6 | 9.8 |
| Fall 2014 | 72.1 | 27.9 | 17.3 | 10.6 |
| Fall 2015 | 71.2 | 28.8 | 17.6 | 11.2 |
| Fall 2016 | 69.3 | 30.7 | 18.6 | 12.1 |
| Fall 2017 | 67.5 | 32.5 | 19.5 | 13 |
| Fall 2018 | 65.7 | 34.3 | 20.3 | 14.0 |
| Fall 2019 | 63.5 | 36.5 | 21.4 | 15.1 |
| Fall 2020 | 31.3 | 68.7 | 22.3 | 46.4 |
| Fall 2021 | 34.8 | 65.2 | 25.6 | 39.7 |
| Fall 2022 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 26.9 | 31.3 |
In-class delivery was lowest around 30% in Fall 2020 and is showing an increase from Fall 2021. Online classes peaked in the Fall 2020 term and are showing a decline. However, hybrid options are showing a steady increase.
Level of Enrollment: 4-year
| Year | Percentage distribution of students by instruction delivery mode | |||
| In-Class | Online Classes (both hybrid and full) | Hybrid (At least one online class) | Fully Online classes | |
| Fall 2012 | 73.7 | 26.3 | 11.9 | 14.4 |
| Fall 2013 | 73 | 27 | 12.2 | 14.8 |
| Fall 2014 | 71.3 | 28.7 | 13.1 | 15.7 |
| Fall 2015 | 69.7 | 30.3 | 14.4 | 15.9 |
| Fall 2016 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 15.9 | 16.3 |
| Fall 2017 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 17.3 | 16.9 |
| Fall 2018 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 18.0 | 17.6 |
| Fall 2019 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 19.0 | 18.6 |
| Fall 2020 | 24.1 | 75.9 | 30.7 | 45.2 |
| Fall 2021 | 41.7 | 58.3 | 31.1 | 27.2 |
| Fall 2022 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 28.1 | 24.8 |
Online Classes peaked at almost 80% in Fall 2020. In-person class percentage is increasing after pandemic. Hybrid option is holding its percentage share since Fall 2020 though there is an approximately 12%-15% decrease in enrollment in overall delivery of online classes.
Level of Enrollment: Undergraduate
| Year | Percentage distribution of students by instruction delivery mode | |||
| In-Class | Online Classes (both hybrid and full) | Hybrid (At least one online class) | Fully Online classes | |
| Fall 2012 | 74.2 | 25.8 | 14.5 | 11.3 |
| Fall 2013 | 73.5 | 26.5 | 15.1 | 11.3 |
| Fall 2014 | 72.3 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 12.1 |
| Fall 2015 | 71 | 29 | 16.7 | 12.3 |
| Fall 2016 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 18.1 | 12.8 |
| Fall 2017 | 67.1 | 32.9 | 19.5 | 13.3 |
| Fall 2018 | 65.5 | 34.5 | 20.5 | 14.0 |
| Fall 2019 | 63.7 | 36.3 | 21.5 | 14.8 |
| Fall 2020 | 25.3 | 74.7 | 30.4 | 44.2 |
| Fall 2021 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 32.6 | 28.2 |
| Fall 2022 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 30.5 | 23.9 |
As 2-year and 4-year programs, in-class delivery for undergraduate programs is increasing after Fall 2020 term, online classes share is showing a decline and hybrid delivery share is holding on to the gain it attained in the Fall 2020 term..
Level of Enrollment: Postbaccalaureate
| Year | Percentage distribution of students by instruction delivery mode | |||
| In-Class | Online Classes (both hybrid and full) | Hybrid (At least one online class) | Fully Online classes | |
| Fall 2012 | 70.2 | 29.8 | 7.8 | 22 |
| Fall 2013 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 7.5 | 23.3 |
| Fall 2014 | 67.3 | 32.7 | 7.8 | 24.9 |
| Fall 2015 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 8.3 | 26.1 |
| Fall 2016 | 63.2 | 36.8 | 9.3 | 27.5 |
| Fall 2017 | 62 | 38 | 9.1 | 28.9 |
| Fall 2018 | 60.2 | 39.8 | 9.0 | 30.7 |
| Fall 2019 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 9.8 | 32.6 |
| Fall 2020 | 29.3 | 70.7 | 18.9 | 51.8 |
| Fall 2021 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 16.1 | 40.3 |
| Fall 2022 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 14.8 | 38.7 |
Post-Pandemic Fall 2020 term, in-class sessions are re-gaining their percentage share and both hybrid and fully online classes are declining in percentage share for postbaccalaureate programs. It is though interesting to note that the decrease in percentage share for fully online courses is not as much as in other programs. Fully online courses were still showing about 39% enrollment in Fall 2022.
Discussion
As with choices in subjects, courses and majors, there are now choices in the type of instruction mode. What was traditionally available only as in-person is now offered in online mode too. Current students are exposed to online and digital learning right from elementary level classes. When I was supervising a middle-school class, students were given the option of turning in their assignments either in the class hour or in the next day which was a holiday. Students preferred to turn in the next day as they could listen to the lessons online and do an online submission from home. What was noteworthy is their exposure, preference and familiarity to online methods of learning right from their school days.
For all program types – 2-year, 4-year, undergraduate and graduate programs, in-class was at the lowest and online classes were at their peak in Fall 2020 term. However, in-class deliveries were gaining percentage share from Fall 2021 term and it is to be seen if they will go to pre-pandemic levels. Online sessions are decreasing in percentage share but hybrid sessions are increasing in percentage share for 2-year programs and holding on their percentage share for 4-year and undergraduate programs. For postbaccalaureate programs, both hybrid and fully online percentage share are decreasing after Fall 2020 term but still had high percentage share (39%) enrollment for fully online classes in Fall 2022 term. These trends show that post-pandemic, hybrid offerings are gaining traction and showing an increasing trend in their percentage share. We already saw that fully online course offerings are on the rise in MOOC platforms.
Fully remote learning comes with shortcomings mainly with lack of social interaction. It also deprives being physically present among teachers, classmates, and schoolmates in a physical school environment. This can be overcome with a hybrid way of learning where students can have social interactions as well as experience digital learning. Paul Romer, Nobel Memorial Prize winning Economist, emphasizes the importance of social interactions in generating ideas crucial for innovation and economic growth and the role that institutions like universities can play in fostering them.
Conclusion
Education and Training services play transformative roles in shaping students and learners for the workforce. Traditionally, these sectors were delivering classes as in-person offerings. Later on with MOOC platforms, learning started to happen also through digital delivery models. During the pandemic, education institutions too started online delivery of instructions. Data shows that after pandemic enrollment in fully online courses is declining in education institutions and preference is for hybrid models where at least one or more courses are offered online. This preference or trend can be extended to the future workforce as today’s students will be tomorrow’s workforce. If students are used to and are preferring hybrid models of learning in schools/colleges, they will have similar preference at work too. With advances in digital technologies and communications and people becoming more comfortable with digital interactions, hybrid models are to be the mode of operations at both schools and offices.
Image courtesy: Image by pikisuperstar on Freepik
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