In the previous blogs, I was discussing about the trends in winning margins over all the election years. We see that seats with less victory margins are increasing over the election years. In the quest to find out which can be tagged as ‘Swing’ seats, I identified seats where the victory margin for the BJP party was less than 3%. The assumption is that seats with high victory margins may still go to the same party in the next election year too. The seats with low margin and that too where BJP won may tilt the elections and they were classified as swing seats. Thus 35 lok sabha seats were identified as swing seats. The one with the lowest victory margin was with just 181 votes. It was MACHHLISHAHR constituency in UTTAR PRADESH. If I look at the winning margin trend, I think this is really a swing seat. BJP won with 9% victory margin in 2014 but it was only 0.01% in 2019.
Below is a graph which shows the winning margin trend for this constituency. The bars show the number of votes difference between first and second candidate and the line shows the percentage of vote difference between first and second candidate. The horizontal x-axis has the election year and winning party.
BJP won by 172,155 votes in 2014 but in 2019 it won by just 181 votes. This graph has given interesting trend about the voting pattern for this seat over the election years.
In a similar way, plots can be generated for all the remaining 34 constituencies that were identified and mentioned in the previous blogs.
This blog has been moved from: blogger
https://coolovalanalysis.wordpress.com/2023/06/23/the-closest-lok-sabha-seat-race-in-2019-election/
Image courtesy: istockphoto
Leave a Reply