In the previous post, I mentioned that there are 39 seats where parties won with less than 1% vote difference and 23 seats where parties won with 1%-2% vote difference. Together there are 62 seats with very less vote difference, and they are close elections. If the results shift in these areas, maybe we will get a result where no one has the majority to form a government.
In those 39 seats with less than 1% vote difference, BJP won 18 seats; INC won 7 seats; TDP won 3 seats; TRS won 2 seats; AITC, BJD, BSP, CPI(M), DMK, JD(U), JDN, VCK and YSRCP each won 1 seat
In those 23 seats with 1%-2% vote difference, BJP won 10 seats; INC won 4 seats; NCP and YSRCP won 2 seats each; BJD, BSP, MNF, NDPP, SAD won 1 seat each.
In total, BJP won 28 seats with less than 2% vote difference. It totally won 301 seats. Assuming BJP does not come top in these 28 seats in 2024 and comes at the top at all the other seats where it won in 2019 elections, BJP winning seats will come down to 301-28 = 273 which will be too too close to come out as a winner. 271 is needed to get a majority. So we may consider that these 28 seats to be swing seats in 2024. In 2%-3% vote difference, BJP won in 7 seats. So all these 28 plus 7 which is 35 seats can be swing seats for 2024 India elections.
The cells highlighted in yellow are 18 seats won by BJP with less than 1% victory margin.
The cells highlighted in yellow in the below table are the 10 seats won by BJP with 1%-2% victory margin.
These can also be taken as swing seats. At the next deeper level with 2%-3% victory margins for BJP, there are 7 seats. They are BIHAR- PATALIPUTRA, UTTAR PRADESH-KAUSHAMBI, KARNATAKA- KOPPAL, UTTAR PRADESH- BHADOHI, MAHARASHTRA – NANDED, WEST BENGAL – BALURGHAT, ASSAM – KARIMGANJ, WEST BENGAL- COOCH BEHAR lok sabha seats.
Looking into these 35 seats and their voting history from all the previous elections will be of interest to predict how their voting behavior might be in the coming 18th Lok Sabha elections to be held next year 2024.
This blog has been moved from: blogger
Image courtesy: istockphoto
Leave a Reply